Project how many years a retirement portfolio lasts under inflation-adjusted annual withdrawals — with a year-by-year balance table and a sequence-of-returns sensitivity warning.
At a $40,000/year withdrawal with 5% returns and 2.5% inflation, $1M lasts about 35 years under straight-line assumptions. Drop returns to 3% and the same withdrawal depletes in about 26 years. Sequence-of-returns risk — bad returns in the first 5-10 years — can shave another 5-10 years off the central case. Use the year-by-year table below to see your specific scenario.
| Year | Withdrawal (nominal) | End Balance (nominal) | End Balance (real, in today's $) |
|---|
⚠️ Sequence-of-returns warning. This is a straight-line projection. Real-world depletion years typically swing ±25% around the central case depending on early-retirement returns. A 5-year bear market starting in year 1 can shave 5-10 years off the projected depletion, while strong early returns can extend it just as much. Use the figure as a midpoint, not a guarantee.
Takes about 2 minutes.
Real vs nominal. This calculator models nominal returns (the headline rate before inflation) and inflation-adjusts the withdrawal each year. The end balance is shown in both nominal terms (what the brokerage statement will read) and real terms (today's purchasing power, deflated back). For sanity-checking, the real return = nominal return − inflation.
Sequence-of-returns risk. The single most important concept in retirement drawdown. Two portfolios with identical 30-year average returns can deplete in wildly different years if their year-by-year sequence differs. Bad returns in the first 5-10 years are far more damaging than the same bad returns 20 years in, because withdrawals lock in losses you can't recover from. Straight-line projections (like this one) hide this risk.
Inflation-adjusted withdrawals. Withdrawing a flat $40,000 every year is not the same as withdrawing $40,000 of purchasing power every year. After 20 years of 2.5% inflation, $40,000 only buys about $24,500 of today's goods. To preserve lifestyle, withdrawals must grow with inflation — this is the Trinity Study convention and what this calculator uses.
The 4% rule connection. If your year-one withdrawal is 4% or less of starting portfolio and your real return averages 4-5%, the portfolio mathematically can last 30-50 years. The historical 95% success rate of 4% comes from this maths — the projected depletion year is usually beyond 30. Increase the withdrawal rate (or decrease real return) and depletion accelerates rapidly.
A 65-year-old retires with $1,000,000 in a 60/40 portfolio. They plan to withdraw $40,000 in year one, increasing with inflation each subsequent year. Expected nominal return is 5%; inflation runs 2.5%. Real return = 5% − 2.5% = 2.5%.
Year-one math: balance × 1.05 = $1,050,000 after returns, minus the $40,000 withdrawal = $1,010,000 end-of-year. Year-two: $1,010,000 × 1.05 = $1,060,500, minus $41,000 (4% inflation-grown) = $1,019,500. The early-year mechanics show why moderate returns above inflation can sustain a long retirement — the portfolio actually grows for the first decade or so.
Continuing the projection: the portfolio peaks around year 10-12 at roughly $1.05M nominal, then begins a slow decline as inflation-grown withdrawals catch up with returns. Depletion happens around year 35 — the portfolio finally hits zero just as our retiree turns 100. In real terms (today's purchasing power), the balance peaks around year 5 at $1.05M and declines steadily afterwards.
Sensitivity. If real returns disappoint at just 1.5% instead of 2.5%, the same $40k withdrawal depletes the portfolio at year 28, not 35. If the retiree faces a 20% market drop in year 2 followed by a recovery, the central-case 35-year depletion typically falls to 27-29 years even if long-run average returns are intact — this is sequence-of-returns risk in numerical form. The safest mitigations: hold 2-3 years of cash, defer Social Security to 70, and flex spending down 10-15% in bad market years.
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